Educational trajectories of school graduates of the Russian industrial region

Introduction. The relevance of the research is accounted by the need to analyse the educational transition of youth from secondary schools to the tertiary education system and to develop a set of measures to encourage the majority of young people to stay in the region of residence and to aim at obtaining skills demanded by the local and regional labour market.The aim of the present research is to identify the educational plans of school graduates and the peculiarities of young people entering into a region’s higher education system. As indicators, the authors consider the availability of education and young people migration at the stage of transition from secondary education to higher education.The problematic situation consists in youth migration from the regions of residence to continue education in major university centers. It leads to a systemic change in the regions’ demographic situation and to the outflow of the most capable regional school leavers.Materials and research methods. The article is based on the data of the sociological study “Comprehensive Analysis of the Education System of the Kemerovo Region” conducted by the authors. A specially developed questionnaire using Google Forms platform was employed to interview the school graduates (787 ninth graders, 338 eleventh graders) and their parents (520 people). The survey covered 18 schools located in all types of settlements. At the stage of data analysis in the SPSS 25 functional environment, primary data were processed and the results were presented using descriptive statistics methods; an in-depth analysis of empirical information was carried out using multidimensional methods of analytical statistics, including the Pearson’s χ2 significance test, the procedures of factor, correlation and regression analysis (p < 0.001).Research results and scientific novelty. Long-range plans of secondary school graduates in the industrial region of Russia were identified; the motives in favour of their choice were studied; and the factors influencing this choice were revealed. As possible measures to overcome the outflow of young people from the regions, the authors propose to consider targeted training, the work with talented youth, the organisation of interaction at the level of “employer – school – university”, the various forms of network interaction of universities, as well as the modern forms of attracting students to the comfortable educational environment of the university, creating conditions not only for learning, but also for leisure, self-development, implementation of continuing education.Practical significance. The research results should be of use to specialists engaged in education studies and young people migration attitudes analysis, in labour market in Russia’s regions, to education management and regional administration officials. The research tools can be used in analysing educational migration and professional trajectories of secondary school graduates in Russia. The study is scheduled to be extended to other RF regions that are most troubled in terms of education migration, aiming to suggest possible ways to optimise this process there.


Introduction
Special attention is now being paid to the development of the education system. Education is increasingly becoming a driver of the region's development. Living standards of the citizens, social stability, and growth prospects, largely depends on its effectiveness. The objective of the system of higher education in the framework of the National Project "Education" is to develop universities and strengthen their competitiveness among the world's leading research and educational centers. The fulfillment of those aims should be based on a high level of interaction between all levels of education. The joint efforts of the subjects of this interaction are intended to improve quality of the system of tertiary education, to make it relevant to modern requirements of the labour market and able to fully comply with the current and prospective demands of the regions of Russia in highly-qualified professionals.
The issues of most concern of professional training in current system of tertiary education in Russia is the situation with the transition of young people from secondary education to the university and introduction of a set of meas-ures that would encourage young people to stay in the region of residence and to focus on acquisition of knowledge and skills that are in demand by the regional labour market. To ensure quality education, four conditions are necessary: students with a high level of basic training; highly qualified teaching staff; modern material and technical basis of training, and the interest of enterprises and businesses in the region to have their own skillful personnel. The foundation for the successful implementation of those conditions is high-quality secondary education in the region and the shaping of sustainable demand for young professionals in the region.
Currently, in the Russian Federation there are very significant territorial differences in ensuring the accessibility of education for citizens of the country. The tertiary education system is currently facing new, global challenges related to the development of the digital economy, innovative practices, and market demands that are ahead of the requirements for specialties, competencies, and skills of the graduates. The problem is aggravated by the entry of a new generation into the labour market. This is the generation born in the 21 st century and having somewhat different ideas from previous generations' about self-realisation, forms and types of employment, level of freedom and compensation for their labour. At the same time, it should be noted that a hallmark of the knowledge society is that its production should be pervasive, "daily available" and equally distributed throughout territory of the country territory [1].
All this requires adaptation of the tertiary education system to the challenges of the time and needs of potential university students. One of the approaches that can contribute to the effective transformation of tertiary education is the revision of its current order and construction of a new system of relationships between the system of tertiary education and the lower level of education -general secondary and professional secondary. This approach is especially relevant at the regional level.
The objectives of this interaction should include solving such problems as: building sustainable ties with the system of general secondary education and secondary professional education in the region, developing tools for early career guidance and encouraging school graduates to continue their studies at universities in their region, productive relationships with enterprises and businesses in the region; the ability to develop educational programmes in accordance with the current and future demands of the regional labour market, the formation of mechanisms for expanding targeted training, a flexible system for involving and employing university students in the region of residence through internships and practices (Boyadijieva P. & Ilieva-Trichkova P. [2], Iloh C. [3], Hunter K. et al [4], Moeller J. et al [5]).
In their research the authors planned to get answers to the following questions: what are the educational trajectories of the secondary school graduates; what factors affect their choice; what conditions are necessary to reduce the outflow of youth from the regions; what factors can stimulate young people to learn in their region. The purpose of the current study is to analyse educational plans of school graduates and peculiarities of the process of entering the tertiary education system in the region. As the indicators we consider the availability of education and migration of young people at the stage of transition from secondary education to tertiary education institutions. We assume that building stable links and creating educational consistency and close cooperation between schools and universities in the region will allow attracting school graduates to the institutions of tertiary education system of their region of residence, and will contribute to the development of both selected region and Russia as a whole.
In the works of foreign experts, a lot of attention is paid to various aspects of the educational transition from the secondary school system to the postsecondary level and the influence of the inequality factor on their development. Naturally, quite a large proportion of works is devoted to the analysis of the accessibility of education for children from various population groups and the peculiarities of their education in upper secondary schools. C. Puckett [21], S. Kolluri [22][23], C. A. George Mwangi [24], Xin Xiang [25] et al analyse characteristic features of the formation of educational trajectories for students in China, Latin America, Bulgaria, the USA and Germany. The authors note that the motives for continuing education at higher levels of education depend on many factors and require a serious and multi-faceted analysis. This is of special importance at the present time, since the rapid change in school education and applied practices inevitably leads to a certain social stratification and limitation in the ability of some groups of students to continue their education and receive it at a high-quality level.
To achieve the goals of the work, it was also useful to study the experience of studying the opinions of schoolchildren on their satisfaction with various aspects of the educational process. Thus, the work of C. Puckett [21] deals with the role of modern technologies in education and the dependence of upper secondary school students' motivation for further education on their successful adoption. A comparative study by S. Kolluri [22] and W. Tierney [23] on various forms of inequality in education, emphasises the impact of the secondary school's internal environment and the approaches to the organisation of the educational process on the success of the students and, accordingly, on their further educational plans. An article by the African researcher C. A. George Mwangi [24] discusses educational strategies for post-secondary education and their dependence on human capital in the family. Xin Xiang [25] looks at educational disparities from the viewpoint of settlement structure using the example of China's rural and urban areas. Proceeding from his own empirical material, he claims the dropout rates in secondary schools and the formation of the school-leavers' educational plans to directly depend on the type of settlement and the family influences on student motivation to continue his/her education.
G. Crips and V. L. Baker [16], proceeding from the results of their study into students' motivations and achievements, discovered the students' educational trajectories to depend on the type of school, curriculum and general socioeconomic background. The authors believe the transition to a higher education level to be associated with the social origin and the environment (classmates) affecting the student's motivation towards educational achievements. This is an extremely important and significant conclusion for considering continuing education and the desire to receive high-quality education as applied to the regional situation in Russia addressed in this paper.
Russian researchers, too, have since long ago and productively dealt with the analysis of educational trajectories of schoolchildren and their plans in terms of educational migration. These problems are looked at in their works (Strielkowski W. et al [26], Blinova T. [27], Bulatova T. [20], Kapuza A. et al. [28], Roshchina Y. [29], Tropnikova V. [30]). As for intercountry educational migration, it is noted that "the phenomenon of educational migration is one inherent in humanity over a significant period of its existence. Educational migration has always provided young people with access to up-to-date technologies, world culture, quality education and international labour markets" [26, p. 33].
On the whole, an analysis of the literature on the subject shows foreign experts and Russian researchers to be in accord while assessing a wide range of factors affecting the formation of the educational trajectories of secondary school graduates; among them, human capital in the family, the environment and socio-economic conditions. However, an analysis of foreign publications shows such a problem as educational migration within the country of residence to have been studied very poorly. Since the distribution of tertiary educational institutions across the country is fairly uniform and the change of residence for the population presents no problem in most European and American countries, such a weakly expressed interest towards the aspect of educational migration can be considered quite explainable. However, this problem is very serious in Asian countries, and it is being explored by researchers. Particularly pressing is this problem in Russia.

Research Methods
The paper is based on the data of the sociological study conducted by the authors in November-December 2018. In the course of the study, the authors planned to get answers to the following questions: what educational trajectories were actualised by 9 th and 11 th grade graduates; what factors influenced their choice; what conditions were needed to reduce the outflow of youth from the regions; and what factors could encourage young people to study and then work in their region.
Within the framework of the study basing on the "Secondary general education schools of the Kemerovo Oblast" official list 18 schools from all types of settlements were randomly selected. In those schools 787 ninth graders, 338 eleventh graders, and 520 parents of ninth and eleventh graders were surveyed by means of a specially developed questionnaire using Google Forms platform. The questionnaire contained both close-and open ended questions. The survey was anonymous and the respondents' personal data were not recorded in any additional forms. The recorded average time of the interview was 10 minutes.
At the stage of data analysis in the SPSS 25 functional environment primary data were processed and the results were presented using descriptive statistics methods; an in-depth analysis of empirical information was carried out using multidimensional methods of analytical statistics, including the Pearson's χ 2 significance test, the procedures of factor, correlation and regression analysis (p < 0.001).

Research results
Accessibility of education is one of the major issues being discussed in this paper. Here are some indicators characterising the accessibility of tertiary education in terms of enrollment rate of people aged 17-25 years with vacancies in Russian universities. Its average value is 33%. The Kursk Oblast, Moscow, the Moscow and Tomsk Oblasts scored highest in Russia (about 50%). For a significant part of the regions, it is less than 28% -the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Tuva [30]. The level of territorial accessibility of the universities for students in Russia is not very high. The average is at the level 107 km. Moscow and the Moscow Oblast are ranked first with 8 km. The difficult situation is in the Siberian, Far Eastern and North Caucasian Federal Districts [28].
The quality of potential students is also important. To evaluate the quality of the admitted students, experts suggest such an indicator as the share of students entered regional universities with an average exam score of at least 70 points. The share of those students in Russia is 24%. The highest shares by this indicator are in the universities of St. Petersburg, the Leningrad Oblast, the Tomsk, Sverdlovsk, Moscow Oblasts and in the city of Moscow. However, in 29 regions, according to the 2016 statistic data, there were no universities with the average score exceed 70 points [31].
The availability of tertiary education in the region of residence of the graduates of secondary schools directly affects their long-term plans. Every year analysts record an increase in the share of ninth-grade graduates, mainly in regions, who decide not to continue any longer secondary school. Migration attitudes of secondary school students in their last year of school also vary depending on the region of residence.
This may be illustrated by the consideration of potential educational trajectories of the secondary school graduates, of the justification of the choice of students in the final classes of schools and of their assessment of the opportunities provided by the school. This analysis is based on the data of the aforementioned sociological research "Analysis of the education system of the Russian region: The case of the Kemerovo Oblast".
The life plans of graduates of different levels of education differ from each other, so their educational trajectories should be considered separately (Figure 1).

The opinion of 9 th graders
The distribution of answers in this group of respondents is as follows: 41.4% intend to continue their education at school. 47.6% will go to college. Almost nobody is going to work after grade 9 (2.3%). 8.6% of the respondents failed to give a definite answer.
The "secondary school -tertiary school" trajectory. According to official statistics data, from 45 to 84% of graduates of basic general secondary education continue to study at school after 9 th grade. However, maximum indicators are recorded in only a few regions (Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Tyumen Oblast, the Republic of Sakha, the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug). The average for the Russian Federation is 56.2%. In the Kemerovo Oblast -about 50%. [32].
As to the reasons why they would like to continue schooling, the majority of students in grade 9 at secondary schools in Russia's Kemerovo Oblast have stated that they took heed of their parents' advice on getting a full secondary education (33.1% of those who decided to make it to grade 10). Equal proportions of respondents noted that they did not want to change their habitual environment and had a desire to receive a quality education (31.6% of respondents). One in five respondents mentioned the lack of clear plans for the future as a motive for continuing their education, so they plan to continue their education so far (21.5%). Among the respondents there are those who, in principle, do not consider for themselves the possibility of receiving secondary professional education (15.6%). The same share of respondents believes that studying at an upper secondary school is more prestigious than at vocational institutions. Regarding their long-term plans after receiving full secondary education, most of this group of respondents indicated that they were planning to go to university (87.9%). The rest are still undecided.
The "secondary school -secondary professional education" trajectory. 47.6% of the ninth-graders surveyed are planning to finish school and enter a vocational institution. Motivating their choice, they indicated that it was important for them, first of all, to obtain a profession in a particular institution (55.2% of those surveyed). About 27.2% of respondents in this group declared their unwillingness to prepare for and take the unified national exam. Quite significant is also the group of those who simply want to complete their studies at a secondary school and leave it (16.4%). That is, some respondents actually stated that they were determined to obtain a profession without having a conscious choice and apparent preferences as to their future professional activity. In secondary professional education institutions, a system of interaction with employers and the employment of graduates is better built. This also creates a serious advantage for young people on the regional labour market. This partly accounts for the low proportions of those who would like to leave the region and continue their studies at a secondary professional education institution.
The "secondary school -postsecondary vocational education -university" trajectory. 34.6% of respondents consider secondary professional education as an intermediate stage on the way to higher education, which is in compliance with the available statistics for secondary professional education graduates, who continue their education at higher educational institutions.
An analysis of the responses of 9 th grade students as to their prospective educational and professional trajectories shows that about half of the respondents consciously make it to grade 10. For many, the motive behind their choice is determined by their parents' opinion. More than half of the respondents are steadfastly planning to continue their studies at secondary professional education institutions.

The opinion of 11 th graders
The plans of secondary school leavers at the stage of completing secondary education differ from those of their younger "colleagues". Many associate them with the further continuation of education at a higher educational institution (79.3%). This is a rather high indicator for a regional education system. 11.5% of respondents stated they would enter a secondary professional education institution. The rest would either take up a job or were still undecided on the choice.
The "secondary school -tertiary school" trajectory. Giving reasons for the choice of their further educational trajectory in the form of continuing their studies at a higher educational institution, the majority of respondents (80.5%) named as the main motive the need to get an education to upgrade their skills in the profession of their choice. 38.2% of respondents dream of studying at a specific higher school. 15.4% of 11 th grade students enter a university at their parents' insistence. The responses of the respondents show that the majority are consciously planning to get higher education. Their choice is measured and is not a momentary and spontaneous decision.
The "secondary school -secondary professional education" trajectory. Of those 11.5% of students who are planning to enter a secondary vocational education institution after secondary school, the majority indicated that they did so to subsequently enter higher schools (64.1%). Another 38.5% noted that they wanted to receive exactly this particular education for their future profession which they had chosen. One in five respondents stated that they were urged to choose secondary professional education institution by the need to get a profession and begin to live on his/her own (20.5%).
The students' answers convincingly show that the family has a significant influence on the decisions taken on the formation of the children's educational trajectories and, in some cases, determines their choice [1; 28; 33]. This is an important observation, since their parents' human capital is one of the main indicators of their children's success. According to the survey findings, about 40% of parents surveyed have higher education. The educational level of 11 th graders' parents is slightly higher than that in 9 th graders' parents. In terms of social status, 11 th graders' parents have higher indices.
A study conducted by American economists S. Levitt and S. Dubner proves that a child of educated parents is most likely to do well at school. This is favoured by the inherited thirst for knowledge, the intelligent environment in which he/she grows, and the fact that such parents understand the value of education and pass this feeling on to their child [34]. This remark is entirely in line with the already mentioned works by Bowles S. & Gintis H. [10] and Coleman J. S. et al. [11]. This hypothesis is corroborated by the results of international studies conducted by PISA and TIMSS showing that children from families with higher cultural capital have higher educational achievements. Similar data have been obtained by Russian experts. The latter assert that children who grew up in a family with parents having a high level of education receive a good education, even if their academic performance at school is not high [35].
The outflow of population, primarily young people, to other regions, including with the aim of continuing education, is one of the main and hard to solve problems in Russia's most regions, including the Kemerovo Oblast. Particularly actively involved in this process are the most successful children who have received high scores on the unified national exam and are prize winners at the All-Russian Olympiad for schoolchildren ( Figure 2).
There are no accurate data from the regions on youth educational migration. However, the authors' own studies conducted using open regional statistics, enable us to ascertain that the proportion of secondary school graduates leaving for other regions of Russia to receive higher education ranges from 30% to 60%. In this connection, 11 th grade students who indicated their plans to go to university after finishing secondary school have been asked to name their preferred choice of educational institution. As a prognostic question, it was also posed to a group of 9 th graders, their answer being that they were planning to go to college after finishing upper secondary school. 36.8% of 11 th graders are planning to continue their education at higher schools of the Kemerovo Region. In the responses of 9 th graders, this proportion is even lower, amounting to 30.6%. The rest are planning to leave. As a possible place of study, all respondents consider, first of all, higher schools of the neighboring regions (Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Tyumen) and also educational institutions in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Significantly, the answers of 9 th graders show that in the future the educational migration of young people will only increase.
Among 11 th grade students there is practically no one unable to unequivocally answer the question of choosing a region for further education. Therefore, the answers of this particular group of respondents seem to be the most balanced and thought out. Every tenth person of them (9.8%) is planning to go to capital cities. Every fifth graduate is planning to leave for another region of the Russian Federation that is not part of the Siberian Federal District (20.7%). Every fourth student wants to study at Universities in areas adjacent to the Kemerovo Oblast (25.6%).
Giving grounds for their choice of a place to continue their studies and unwillingness to study in their region, the respondents mention various motives. As the main reason, they indicate a possibility of subsequent employment (51.3%) and, therefore, do not actually link their professional career to the regions of residence in the future. A significant part of the respondents note that their departure is caused by a desire to move to another region (43.7%). Accordingly, there is virtually no hope for this group to return after studying. A significant part of the answers lies in the educational sphere. 47.5% of respondents want to get a better education than the Universities of Kuzbass can provide. 24.5% of respondents plan study in the training directions that are unavailable in their region. The external components of studying, i.e. the availability of foreign internships and student exchange programmes, are significant for 22.8% of respondents.

Educational trajectories of school graduates of the Russian industrial region
All students, regardless of their educational trajectory, were asked what three criteria were most important for them when choosing an educational organisation to continue their studies [36; 37]. Students at both education levels put in first place the quality of education, good prospects for employment after studying and the reputation of the educational institution.

Discussion and Conclusions
The study results show that as the region's educational system is improving and a number of educational directions are being revised to meet the young people's demands, quite a significant proportion of secondary school leavers can be attracted to higher schools within their region. Establishing relations with foreign universities and a real student exchange programme will provide additional arguments in favour of studying at the place of residence.
By the time the young people enter university, they already have a certain amount of the educational capital received at school and at home. The family has a significant impact on decisions taken. Therefore, addressing the parent community and the argumentation on career prospects for school leavers in their region can be of great importance in the formation of their children's plans. The study revealed poor career guidance at school. The role of the region's enterprises, which should be interested in preparing staff for the future, is also hardly discernible. So, the student's own educational capital, formed by the time of finishing school and choosing a subsequent trajectory, depends on many factors. A significant part of those factors can be substantially levelled when implementing a set of measures aimed at encouraging the young to stay in the regions of residence.