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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">edscience</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Образование и наука</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>The Education and science journal</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1994-5639</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2310-5828</issn><publisher><publisher-name>RSVPU</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17853/1994-5639-2021-2-71-93</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">edscience-1986</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОБЩИЕ ВОПРОСЫ ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>GENERAL EDUCATION</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Прогностическое моделирование выгорания среди будущих учителей английского языка в Казахстане</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Predictive modelling of burnout among Kazakhstani English teacher candidates</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1528-4494</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Жетписбаева</surname><given-names>Б. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Zhetpisbayeva</surname><given-names>A. B.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Жетписбаева Бахытгуль Асылбековна – доктор педагогических наук, профес-сор, проректор по стратегическому развитию</p><p>Караганда</p><p> </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Bakhytgul A. Zhetpisbayeva – Dr. Sci. (Education), Professor, Vice-Rector for Strategic Development</p><p>Karaganda</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">zhetpisbajeva@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9087-868X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сейлханова</surname><given-names>А. Е.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Seilkhanova</surname><given-names>A. Ye.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Сейлханова Айнур Ергалиевна – докторант кафедры теории и методики иноя-зычной подготовки факультета иностранных языков</p><p>Караганда</p><p> </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Ainur Ye. Seilkhanova – PhD Student, Department of the Theory and Practice ofForeign Language Training, Faculty of Foreign Languages</p><p>Karaganda</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">seylkhanova.ksu@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Саржанова</surname><given-names>Г. Б.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sarzhanova</surname><given-names>G. B.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Саржанова Галия Байжумаевна – PhD (философия), заведующая кафедрой теории и методики иноязычной подготовки факультета иностранных языков</p><p>Караганда</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Galiya B. Sarzhanova – PhD (Philosophy), Head of the Department of Theory andPractice of Foreign Language Training, Faculty of Foreign Languages</p><p>Karaganda</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">galiya008@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1482-7901</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Цем</surname><given-names>Э.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Cem</surname><given-names>E.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Цем Эрдем – профессор департамента азиатских исследований</p><p>Познань</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Erdem Cem – Professor, Department of Asian Studies</p><p>Poznan</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">cemerdemm@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8070-2181</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Оспанова</surname><given-names>Б. Р.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Ospanova</surname><given-names>B. R.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Оспанова Бикеш Ревовна – кандидат филологических наук, заведующая кафе-дрой русского языка и культуры</p><p>Караганда</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Bikesh R. Ospanova – Cand. Sci. (Philology), Head of the Department of RussianLanguage and Culture</p><p>Karaganda</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">o.b.r@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Карагандинский университет им. Е. А. Букетова<country>Казахстан</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Buketov Karaganda University<country>Kazakhstan</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru">Университет им. Адама Мицкевича<country>Польша</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Adam Mickiewicz University<country>Poland</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru">Карагандинский технический университет<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Karaganda Technical University<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2021</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>13</day><month>02</month><year>2021</year></pub-date><volume>23</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>71</fpage><lpage>93</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Жетписбаева Б.А., Сейлханова А.Е., Саржанова Г.Б., Цем Э., Оспанова Б.Р., 2021</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2021</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Жетписбаева Б.А., Сейлханова А.Е., Саржанова Г.Б., Цем Э., Оспанова Б.Р.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Zhetpisbayeva A.B., Seilkhanova A.Y., Sarzhanova G.B., Cem E., Ospanova B.R.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.edscience.ru/jour/article/view/1986">https://www.edscience.ru/jour/article/view/1986</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Введение</title><p>Введение. В Казахстане 55% будущих учителей английского языка не планируют работать в государственных школах после окончания высшего учебного заведения. В настоящем количественном исследовании, используя статистический анализ, авторы попытались определить причины этого явления.</p><p>Цель исследования – определить вероятность раннего выгорания у будущих учителей английского языка с помощью прогностического моделирования.</p><p>Методология и методы исследования. Для создания прогностической модели авторы использовали следующие инструменты статистического анализа данных: факторный анализ, порядковую регрессию и тест хи-квадрат. Совокупность вышеуказанных инструментов позволяет прогнозировать намерения работать в казахстанской государственной школе более пяти лет. Этот период выступает в качестве косвенной переменной для прогнозирования уровня выгорания будущих учителей. В исследовании приняли участие 160 будущих преподавателей, получивших государственные стипендии на бесплатное обучение с обязательством работать в государственных школах после окончания учебы.</p><p>Результаты и научная новизна. Данные показали, что некоторые респонденты будут работать менее пяти лет из-за чувства отчаяния по поводу своей профессии. Результаты показывают, что будущие учителя нуждаются в лучшей подготовке. Кроме того, авторы обнаружили корреляцию между ожиданиями от преподавательской карьеры и гендерным разрывом, когда участники старшего возраста с большей вероятностью намеревались проработать более пяти лет в учебной среде.</p></sec><sec><title>Практическая значимость</title><p>Практическая значимость. Настоящая работа вносит вклад в дальнейшие исследования, направленные на предотвращение нехватки и текучести преподавательского состава на рабочем месте путем выявления ранних предупреждающих признаков выгорания среди будущих учителей. Определены показатели группы риска начинающих учителей, которые более склонны к выгоранию из-за эмоционального истощения, низких самоэффективности, ожиданий и перспектив педагогической карьеры. По мнению авторов, эффективная профориентация обеспечивает адекватный отбор наиболее мотивированных соискателей с высокими профессиональными ожиданиями.</p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Introduction</title><p>Introduction. In Kazakhstan, 55% of English pre-service teacher candidates do not plan to work in public schools after graduation. The current quantitative study, using statistical analysis, sought to determine the causes of this phenomenon.</p><p>The aim of the present research was to determine the probability of early career burnout among future English teachers using predictive modeling.</p><p>Methodology and research methods. To create a predictive model, the authors used the following statistical data analysis tools: factor analysis, ordinal regression, and the Сhi-square test. The selection of the above tools provides to predict the probability of work intention in a Kazakhstani public school for more than five years. This period acts as a proxy variable for predicting future teachers’ burnout rates. The study involved 160 pre-service teachers, who received State scholarships for free tuition, with an obligation to work in public schools after graduation.</p><p>Results and scientific novelty. The data indicated that some respondents would only work for a period of less than five years, due to a sense of despair about their profession. The results demonstrate that pre-service teachers require better training. Furthermore, the authors found a correlation in teaching career expectations and the gender gap, where mature female participants were more likely to carry an intention to work for more than five years.</p></sec><sec><title>Practical significance</title><p>Practical significance. The present study makes a contribution to further research aimed at preventing the shortage and turnover of teaching staff in the workplace by detecting early warning signs of burnout among prospective teachers. The authors identified the indicators of the risk group of novice teachers, who are more prone to burnout due to emotional exhaustion, low self-efficacy, low expectations, and prospects from a teaching career. The authors believe that effective career guidance provides an adequate selection of the most motivated applicants with high occupational expectations.</p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>прогностическое моделирование</kwd><kwd>выгорание студентов</kwd><kwd>намерение работать</kwd><kwd>кандидаты в преподаватели английского языка</kwd><kwd>разочарование на ранней стадии</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>predictive modelling</kwd><kwd>student burnout</kwd><kwd>intention to work</kwd><kwd>English teacher candidates</kwd><kwd>early stage disappointment</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Аналитический отчет «Учителя Казахстана: почему молодые люди выбирают эту профессию и что их мотивирует оставаться в ней?» / С. А. Ирсалиев, М. Б. Камзолдаев, Д. Н. Ташибаева, А. Т. Копеева. 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