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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">edscience</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Образование и наука</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>The Education and science journal</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1994-5639</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2310-5828</issn><publisher><publisher-name>RSVPU</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17853/1994-5639-2022-6-60-83</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">edscience-2761</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОБЩИЕ ВОПРОСЫ ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>GENERAL EDUCATION</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Форсайт профессиональных затруднений учителей</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Foresight of teachers’ professional challenges</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7497-7557</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Новопашина</surname><given-names>Л. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Novopashina</surname><given-names>L. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Новопашина Лариса Александровна – кандидат психологических наук, доцент, руководитель научно-учебной лаборатории мониторинга профессиональных компетенций; директор</p><p>Красноярск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Larisa A. Novopashina – Cand. Sci. (Psychology), Associate Professor, Head of the Scientific and Educational Laboratory for Monitoring Professional Competencies; Director</p><p>Krasnoyarsk</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">nla@ippd.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4091-7385</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Григорьева</surname><given-names>Е. Г.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Grigorieva</surname><given-names>E. G.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Григорьева Евгения Гербовна – кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры управления человеческими ресурсами; научный сотрудник</p><p>Красноярск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Evgenya G. Grigorieva – Cand. Sci. (Economics), Associate Professor, Department of Human Resource Management; Researcher</p><p>Krasnoyarsk</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">eggrigoreva2016@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2661-572X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кузина</surname><given-names>Д. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kuzina</surname><given-names>D. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Кузина Дарья Владимировна – кандидат педагогических наук, доцент кафедры социальной педагогики и социальной работы, младший научный сотрудник</p><p>Красноярск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Darya V. Kuzina – Cand. Sci. (Education), Associate Professor, Department of Social Pedagogy and Social Work, Junior Researcher</p><p>Krasnoyarsk</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">dar603@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Сибирский федеральный университет; Центр комплексных социологических исследований Красноярского государственного педагогического университета им. В. П. Астафьева</institution></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Siberian Federal University; Center for Comprehensive Sociological Research, Krasnoyarsk State Pedagogical University named after V. P. Astafyev</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Центр комплексных социологических исследований Красноярского государственного педагогического университета им. В. П. Астафьева</institution></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Center for Comprehensive Sociological Research, Krasnoyarsk State Pedagogical University named after V. P. Astafyev</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2022</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>14</day><month>06</month><year>2022</year></pub-date><volume>24</volume><issue>6</issue><fpage>60</fpage><lpage>83</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Новопашина Л.А., Григорьева Е.Г., Кузина Д.В., 2022</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2022</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Новопашина Л.А., Григорьева Е.Г., Кузина Д.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Novopashina L.A., Grigorieva E.G., Kuzina D.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.edscience.ru/jour/article/view/2761">https://www.edscience.ru/jour/article/view/2761</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Введение</title><p>Введение. Развитие российской системы образования и поставленные задачи обеспечения постоянного профессионального развития учителей обусловливают постоянный поиск новых инструментов и методов исследования и прогнозирования их компетенций, профессиональных дефицитов и затруднений. В настоящей статье представлено исследовательское решение прогнозирования профессиональных затруднений учителей в региональной системе образования с помощью форсайт-методов.</p><p>Целью настоящей работы является прогнозирование затруднений профессиональной деятельности учителей с учетом неопределенности сформированности их форсайт-компетенций.</p><p>Методология, методы и методики исследования. В качестве методологической основы прогнозирования профессиональных затруднений учителей избрана методология форсайта и исследований будущего. Первый опыт технологического форсайта, представленный B. R. Martin, развиваемый в разных странах, сферах и отраслевых системах (M. Hilbert, Y. Kishita, I. Miles, J. Othmer, C. Reimers-Hild, А. Магрук и др.), нашел свое применение в образовании (A. Havas, V. Munigala, J. Rong, Sánchez-Torres J. M., C. Sjodin, A. Yaver и др.) и современных исследованиях профессиональных компетенций (M. Rieckmann, Л. М. Андрюхина, Э. Ф. Зеер, А. Кононюк, Л. Е. Курнешова, В. П. Сморчкова и др.). В системе образования Красноярского края для участников данное исследование стало первой встречей с форсайтом. Прообразом для разработки инструментов стал опыт и материалы форсайт-исследования в Финляндии. В ходе исследования проведено 241 индивидуальное интервью с представителями разных заинтересованных сторон в развитии образования – студенты педагогического университета, учителя и родители. Наибольшую долю составили учителя (77 %), 15 % в выборке составили студенты – будущие педагоги, 8 % респондентов составила группа родителей.</p></sec><sec><title>Результаты</title><p>Результаты. В результате исследования было установлено, что основным затруднением в будущем станет отсутствие компетенций и умений педагогов применять необходимые методики и технологии. С точки зрения учителей, главным затруднением в будущем станет нехватка времени на необходимые изменения. С точки зрения студентов – будущих педагогов, главные затруднения учителей будут заключаться в отсутствии желания и мотивации со стороны обучающихся и преподавателей, нехватке материальных средств, оборудования, ресурсов. С точки зрения родителей, основным затруднением в будущем останется излишняя бюрократизация процесса обучения. Кроме этого они выделяют отсутствие желания и мотивации со стороны обучающихся и преподавателей и отсутствие компетенций у педагогов для применения необходимых методик, технологий.</p></sec><sec><title>Научная новизна</title><p>Научная новизна. Исследование направлено на решение вопросов выбора и адаптации методов форсайта в условиях неопределенности форсайт-компетенций его участников, учета возможностей расширения круга заинтересованных сторон и ограничений распространения форсайт-технологий в России. Обнаружены возможности оценки профессиональных затруднений учителей и их взаимосвязь с профессиональными дефицитами, что вносит вклад в форсайт-исследования компетенций.</p></sec><sec><title>Практическая значимость</title><p>Практическая значимость. Полученный прогноз о профессиональных затруднениях учителей позволит скорректировать существующую систему повышения квалификации педагогических работников и заложить основу регионального мониторинга.</p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Introduction</title><p>Introduction. The search for new tools, methods of research and forecasting of teachers’ professional challenges is conditioned by the development of the Russian education system and the tasks to develop teachers’ competencies. This article presents a research solution for predicting the professional challenges faced by teachers in the regional education system using foresight methods.</p></sec><sec><title>Aim</title><p>Aim. The current research aims to predict the challenges of teachers’ professional activity, considering the uncertainty of the formation of their foresight competencies.</p><p>Methodology and research methods. The foresight methodology was chosen as a methodological basis for predicting teachers’ professional challenges. The first experience of technological foresight presented by B. R. Martin, developed in different countries, spheres and industry systems (M. Hilbert, Y. Kishita, I. Miles, J. Othmer, C. Reimers-Hild, A. Magruk, etc.), has found its application in education (A. Havas, V. Munigala, J. Rong, Sánchez-Torres J. M., Sjodin, A. Yaver, etc.) and modern studies of professional competencies (M. Rieckmann, L. M. Andriukhina, E. F. Zeer, A. Kononyuk, L. E. Kurneshova, V. P. Smorchkova, etc.). This research is the first implementation of foresight methodology to study the education system of the Krasnoyarsk Territory. The prototype for the development of tools was the experience and materials of foresight research in Finland. In the course of the study, 241 individual interviews were conducted with the representatives of various stakeholders in the development of education – students of the pedagogical university, teachers and parents. The most active part and the largest share were teachers (77%), students – future teachers (15%) and parents (8%).</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Results. As a result of the study, it was found that the main challenge in the future will be the lack of competencies and skills of teachers to apply the necessary techniques and technologies. From the teachers’ point of view, the main challenge in the future will be the lack of time for the necessary changes. From the point of view of future teachers, the main challenges of teachers will be the lack of desire and motivation on the part of students and teachers, lack of finance provision, equipment, resources. From the point of view of parents, the main difficulty in the future will remain excessive bureaucratisation of the learning process. In their opinion, the lack of desire and motivation on the part of students and teachers, as well as the lack of competency of teachers to apply the necessary techniques and technologies, are the main challenges of teachers.</p></sec><sec><title>Scientific novelty</title><p>Scientific novelty. The research is aimed at solving the issues of choosing and adapting foresight methods in conditions of uncertainty of foresight competencies of its participants. The study promotes the possibility of expanding the range of stakeholders and considers the limitations of the spread of foresight technologies in Russia. The research demonstrated the possibility of predicting the assessment of teachers’ professional challenges, which contributes to the foresight study of competencies.</p></sec><sec><title>Practical significance</title><p>Practical significance. The received forecast about the professional challenges faced by teachers will provide the support to adjust the existing system of professional development of teaching staff and to lay the foundation for regional monitoring.</p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>форсайт</kwd><kwd>профессиональные затруднения</kwd><kwd>учителя</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>foresight</kwd><kwd>professional challenges</kwd><kwd>teachers</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Статья подготовлена при поддержке КГАУ «Красноярский краевой фонд поддержки научной и научно-технической деятельности» в рамках проекта «Комплексное исследование профессиональных дефицитов и затруднений учителей Красноярского края». Особую благодарность мы выражаем соисполнителям проекта – И. А. Бидус и сотрудникам Красноярского краевого института повышения квалификации, а также анонимным рецензентам данной статьи.</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The article was prepared with the support of the Krasnoyarsk Regional Foundation for the Support of Scientific and Scientific-Technical Activities in the framework of the project “Comprehensive Study of Professional Deficits and Difficulties of Teachers of the Krasnoyarsk Territory”. The authors express special gratitude to the co-executors of the project – I. A. Bidus and the Krasnoyarsk Regional Institute of Advanced Training, as well as to the anonymous reviewers of this article.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Martin B. R. Foresight in Science and Technology // Technology Analysis and Strategic Management. 1995. № 7 (2). Р. 139–168. 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