Introduction. Despite the increasing importance of the vocational education and training systems in the developed countries, with rare exceptions, there are no strategic management tools adequate to the present context. The system of vocational education and training (VET), being a complex and multidimensional object, requires adequate approaches to manage its development. The present article demonstrates one of these approaches based on forecasting possible system states in the long term, identifying and comparing alternative development scenarios. The requirements for describing scenarios for the development of regional vocational education and training system, including the possible structure of the description and parameters of the scenarios, are presented and justified. The advantages of an approach to forecasting, based on a comprehensive qualitative description of possible states of the regional ecosystem of VET, are shown.

The aim of the present article was to demonstrate a scientific approach to long-term forecasting of the development of vocational education and training.

Methodology and research methods. The current research is based on the methodology of system analysis of social objects, using the methods of comparative analysis and modeling of social systems, scenario planning and expert methods.

Results and scientific novelty. As a result of the research, a methodology for the scientific description of scenarios for the development of vocational education and training, under the influence of a set of probable factors, was developed. The novelty of the results lies in the possibility of constructing a number of alternative scenarios using relatively stable model modules.

Practical significance. The research results can be applied in the process of strategic planning for the development of vocational education and training in the regions of the Russian Federation, as well as for the regional vocational education and training systems of other countries.

Introduction. The approaches applied to reforms in the education systems in different countries assume notable importance of adapting students to changes in the environment and to its future conditions. In this case, the future is predicted as a continued present. This approach contradicts ongoing changes in reality, which are characterised by a high degree of unpredictability, and risks of unexpected future scenarios. Therefore, the search for new concepts of education development based on a set of theoretical provisions on preadaptation of students to changes in the environment and design of mechanisms for embedding in future models has emerged as an essential scientific problem.

The aim of the present research was to develop methodological basis and means (educational practices) of the preadaptation of students to innovation activity and formation of practices of futures scenario building.

Methodology and research methods. The research methodological framework is based on the historical-evolutionary approach and the methodology of futurology. The applied methodology enabled the authors to conduct the research based on the principles of combination of adaptation and preadaptation of students to innovative activities, the importance of developing practices for futures scenario building focused on the ideas of futurology. The research methods involve generalisation of scientific statements and logical deduction of new knowledge; analysis of practice using the case study method (more than 120 school cases were studied); experimental verification of authors’ materials (testing of practices for futures scenario building based on 25 schools in several regions of Russia).

Results and scientific novelty. The authors introduce the concept of the role and content of the process of preadaptation of students. Methodological basis for practices of futures scenario building was developed. The taxonomy of the practices of futures scenario building is described. The provisions on students’ preadaptation to innovative activity and formation of active position towards the future are developed. The proposed methodology of practices of futures scenario building determines the role of these practices, their content, implementation technology, grouping and use at three levels: personal development, communicative or social development, and active development of the student’s personality. The research results can be considered as the evolutionary development of the provisions of traditional adaptive theories.

Practical significance. Long-term experience of the authors in creating the methodology and educational practices of cooperation with the future enables to design educational activity in a new way and to succeed in the realisation of the concept of variative education and formation of metasubject competences, which assume inter alia competences of future thinking as well as self-positioning therein.

Introduction. In Kazakhstan, 55% of English pre-service teacher candidates do not plan to work in public schools after graduation. The current quantitative study, using statistical analysis, sought to determine the causes of this phenomenon.

The aim of the present research was to determine the probability of early career burnout among future English teachers using predictive modeling.

Methodology and research methods. To create a predictive model, the authors used the following statistical data analysis tools: factor analysis, ordinal regression, and the Сhi-square test. The selection of the above tools provides to predict the probability of work intention in a Kazakhstani public school for more than five years. This period acts as a proxy variable for predicting future teachers’ burnout rates. The study involved 160 pre-service teachers, who received State scholarships for free tuition, with an obligation to work in public schools after graduation.

Results and scientific novelty. The data indicated that some respondents would only work for a period of less than five years, due to a sense of despair about their profession. The results demonstrate that pre-service teachers require better training. Furthermore, the authors found a correlation in teaching career expectations and the gender gap, where mature female participants were more likely to carry an intention to work for more than five years.

Practical significance. The present study makes a contribution to further research aimed at preventing the shortage and turnover of teaching staff in the workplace by detecting early warning signs of burnout among prospective teachers. The authors identified the indicators of the risk group of novice teachers, who are more prone to burnout due to emotional exhaustion, low self-efficacy, low expectations, and prospects from a teaching career. The authors believe that effective career guidance provides an adequate selection of the most motivated applicants with high occupational expectations.

Introduction. Anxiety is characterised by feelings of tension, apprehension or fear. It arises from concern about student performance at university, with an emphasis on exact science subjects. It is not only students, who suffer from mathematical anxiety. However, anxiety is a predominant factor in student performance at all levels.

The aim of the research was to describe the levels of anxiety also known as distress manifested by university mathematics students studying at the Universidad Nacional de Chimborazo (UNACH) during the 2020-1 academic semester.

Methodology and research methods. The current study was carried out applying the quantitative paradigm. It is of a descriptive exploratory design. The total sample consisted of 120 students, who are preparing at their university level, and, who are studying the subject of mathematics at different levels and careers at UNACH. The selection of the sample was of an intentional non-probabilistic type and having as inclusion criteria not having been diagnosed with an anxiety disorder. As a measurement instrument, the Short Inventory of Anxiety Situations and Responses-ISRA-B was applied. ISRA-B was sent to students by email to facilitate data collection.

Results. The results were analysed by means of the two-factor ANOVA calculation (mathematics and understanding). The results showed that there are statistically significant differences in the understanding of the contents presented by the teachers in a virtual way. During the COVID-19 pandemic the levels of mathematical anxiety increased. Teaching mathematics at university in online format requires the assessment of digital connection and time limited submission of assignments. These factors limit understanding and generate mathematical anxiety. Scientific novelty. In face-to-face education, mathematical anxiety is common. But because of the pandemic, mathematics education has had to migrate to the virtual environment. The present research reflects the impact of anxiety not only on mathematics education and academic performance but also on the emotions of students. The data collection instruments ISRA-B-C, ISRA-B-F and ISRA-B-M are innovative and adaptable to all levels of education.

Practical significance. The importance of mathematics and the overestimation of its difficulties cause great concern for the learning of this subject in studies at a higher university level. The current studies of virtual mathematical anxiety are important because they allow the detection and analysis of possible educational failures in online learning. The failures of online education have a direct impact not only on performance and learning, but on an emotional state of students.

Introduction. The article considers the educational failure of students as a social problem. Its relevance is due to the growth of educationally unsuccessful students and the need to overcome this phenomenon.

The aim of the present article was to analyse the nature of the influence of the social context on the educational failure of students.

Methodology and research methods. The research is based on the interdisciplinary methodology, which integrates the principles of sociological, psychological, socio-psychological, economic, and pedagogical approaches in the study of educational failure and ways to overcome it. The empirical basis of the article is the results of an interdisciplinary study using a qualitative mix strategy (2019–2020). The following methods were employed: semi-formal expert interviews, focus groups with school, college and university students, and the analysis of essays by high school students.

Results and scientific novelty. The novelty of the research consists in the interpretation of educational failure, its social context, and in showing the limitations of the educational approach to the analysis of the phenomenon under consideration. The main results presented in the article involve the interpretation of educational failure as an educational and social phenomenon and its social context; the characteristics of the main contextual factors, which are analysed as social inequality in education, educational policy, the place of education in the system of social values and in the model of social success. The results of the empirical research reveal the understanding of educational failure as a social phenomenon, its social causes. It is concluded that the modern social context of Russian education limits the possibility of overcoming this phenomenon and needs to be changed

Practical significance of the article is the possibility to take into account the results of the research to improve social technologies for overcoming educational failure.

Introduction. The trend of teaching staff aging in secondary schools is evident in many countries. A negative consequence of this is the growing gap between the personal resources of teachers and the requirements of the profession. Solving the problem of maintaining an optimal age structure involves studying its dynamics and forecasting its development in order to develop measures for personnel planning. The present paper presents the results of the analysis of the current age structure of teachers in the regional context (in the subjects of the Russian Federation) and develops a forecast for its development.

The aim of the current research was to present the results of the development of a medium-term (until 2024) forecast of the age structure of teachers in the subjects of the Russian Federation.

Methodology and research methods. The research was based on a general scientific methodology applying a systematic approach and the methods of statistical analysis, comparison, generalisation, systematisation, structuring, interpretation, extrapolation, forecasting, and graphical representation of data. The authors analysed the data in official statistics of the Russian Federation and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. The provisions of normative and legislative documents in the field of strategic regulation of education in the Russian Federation, scientific publications of Russian and foreign researchers in the Scopus, Web of Science, and Science Index databases were investigated as well.

Results. The authors identify and highlight the factors, which have the most significant impact on the current state of personnel support for educational activities in the world. The analysis of age-specific teacher characteristics in cross-country comparison is performed. The assessment of age structure of general education teaching personnel in Russia as a whole and at the regional level is carried out. The forecast for its development for the period up to 2024 is developed. Scientific novelty. The conceptual feature of the present study lies in the view of the trends in the development of age cohorts in homogeneous groups. The approach employed allows for increasing the accuracy of forecasting of teacher demand, taking into account the specifics of regional demand.

Practical significance. Taking the specifics of the regions into consideration, it will be possible to improve the quality of education. The results of the research can be used by specialists in the course of conducting international research, planning teacher training, and developing measures to enhance the prestige of teaching profession and to stimulate the influx of young personnel to schools at the Federal level and in the regions of the Russian Federation.

Introduction. In the era of the formation of the world educational space, historical and pedagogical studies of regional education systems acquire special relevance. Many states, while modernising their national education systems, turn to the experience of past generations in order to understand how socio-economic changes taking place around the world and in Russia can affect the education system of a particular region. The twenties of the last century in Russia is a time of searching for new types of schools, opportunities for educating and teaching the younger generation in the spirit of the new (Soviet) ideology. The peoples of South Siberia (Altai, Shors, Kumandins, Chelkans, Teleuts, Tubalars, Telengits), united in the administrative-territorial framework of the Oirot Autonomous Region and the Gorno-Shor National Region, despite the difficulties, made a significant progress in the development of school education, including the number of the national school.

The aim of the present article was to study the peculiarities of the process of formation and development of the Soviet education system among the indigenous peoples of Southern Siberia in the 1920s.

Methodology and research methods. The research is based on the analysed and generalised content of archival documents, scientific sources on the history of the formation of the peoples of Southern Siberia in the context of the system-historical approach. The authors of the article studied 35 documents from the funds of the Committee for Archives of the Altai Republic and the Center for the Storage of Archives of the Altai Territory. The archival documents introduced into scientific circulation made it possible to consider the process of increasing the number of national schools, providing students with textbooks in their native language, the process of training teachers from the indigenous population, taking into account the national and cultural characteristics of the region.

Results and scientific novelty. Based on the study of archival materials, the authors of the article rethink the activities of the Soviet authorities to restore and create the school network of education, its development and preparation for the introduction of universal primary education among the peoples of Southern Siberia. The issue of creating a national education system in the 1920s is closely connected with the process of indigenisation, as part of the national policy of the Soviet state and with the process of transferring the local population to settled life. By the beginning of the 1930s, a network of school institutions was created in the region, which increased the percentage of literate adolescents and subsequently enrolled in primary education all children of school age. Addressing national inequalities through the development of the education system and the eradication of illiteracy in the multinational region is of undeniable interest to educational historians and teachers.

Practical significance. Today, the interest of researchers in regional history has increased all over the world; therefore, the current article will be useful to readers, as the analysis of new archival documents helps to fill the gaps in the scientific literature on the establishment of the Soviet school among the indigenous peoples of southern Siberia in the 1920s. The materials of the article can be used by teachers to design the courses on the history of education in Russia and the historical study of local lore. Moreover, the presented materials can be applied in the course of the development of a modern regional educational policy.